Ulinzi Stars 2–0 Chemelil Sugar: Result & Stats

Ulinzi Stars

FT

2 – 0

Chemelil Sugar

4/29/2018

FKF Premier League · Round 13Afraha Stadium (Nakuru)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Ulinzi Stars50%

×Draw30%

Chemelil Sugar20%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ulinzi StarsExpected goals in this matchChemelil Sugar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.24

0.68

Ulinzi Stars

1.24

Chemelil Sugar

0.68

Ulinzi Stars creates 82% more chances

Season form · 144 home / 55 away

1.06

creates per match

0.56

0.80

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Ulinzi Stars

1.06

Chemelil Sugar

0.56

allows per match

Ulinzi Stars

0.80

Chemelil Sugar

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ulinzi Stars+0.00on par

Chemelil Sugar+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ulinzi Stars ↓

Chemelil Sugar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–110%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Ulinzi Stars or draw

80%

Ulinzi Stars or Chemelil Sugar

70%

Draw or Chemelil Sugar

50%

Winning margin

Ulinzi Stars wins by 2+

23%

Chemelil Sugar wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Ulinzi Stars 1+ goals

71%

Ulinzi Stars 2+ goals

35%

Ulinzi Stars 3+ goals

13%

Chemelil Sugar 1+ goals

49%

Chemelil Sugar 2+ goals

15%

Chemelil Sugar 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Ulinzi Stars (draw refunded)

71%

Chemelil Sugar (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ulinzi Stars at home — creates 1.06, concedes 0.80 · 144 matches

Chemelil Sugar away — creates 0.56, concedes 1.42 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ulinzi Stars attack 1.06 + Chemelil Sugar defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.24

Chemelil Sugar attack 0.56 + Ulinzi Stars defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Ulinzi Stars scores more

50%

level

30%

Chemelil Sugar scores more

20%

Ulinzi Stars at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Ulinzi Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff