Chemelil Sugar 0–2 Ulinzi Stars: Result & Stats

Chemelil Sugar

FT

0 – 2

Ulinzi Stars

8/25/2018

FKF Premier League · Round 28Chemelil Sports Complex (Chemelil)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Chemelil Sugar31%

×Draw32%

Ulinzi Stars37%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chemelil SugarExpected goals in this matchUlinzi Stars

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.89

0.99

Chemelil Sugar

0.89

Ulinzi Stars

0.99

Ulinzi Stars creates 11% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 146 away

0.82

creates per match

0.86

1.13

allows per match

0.95

creates per match

Chemelil Sugar

0.82

Ulinzi Stars

0.86

allows per match

Chemelil Sugar

1.13

Ulinzi Stars

0.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chemelil Sugar+0.00on par

Ulinzi Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

Under71
Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chemelil Sugar ↓

Ulinzi Stars →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–115%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

56%44%2.5

29%71%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Chemelil Sugar or draw

63%

Chemelil Sugar or Ulinzi Stars

68%

Draw or Ulinzi Stars

69%

Winning margin

Chemelil Sugar wins by 2+

11%

Ulinzi Stars wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Chemelil Sugar 1+ goals

59%

Chemelil Sugar 2+ goals

22%

Chemelil Sugar 3+ goals

6%

Ulinzi Stars 1+ goals

63%

Ulinzi Stars 2+ goals

26%

Ulinzi Stars 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Chemelil Sugar (draw refunded)

46%

Ulinzi Stars (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chemelil Sugar at home — creates 0.82, concedes 1.13 · 56 matches

Ulinzi Stars away — creates 0.86, concedes 0.95 · 146 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chemelil Sugar attack 0.82 + Ulinzi Stars defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.89

Ulinzi Stars attack 0.86 + Chemelil Sugar defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Chemelil Sugar scores more

31%

level

32%

Ulinzi Stars scores more

37%

Ulinzi Stars at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Ulinzi Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff