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Ulinzi Stars vs Bidco United — FKF Premier League 2025

Ulinzi Stars
Ulinzi Stars
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Bidco United
Bidco United
B. Muchiri 76'
T. Wainaina 60'
C. Akite 57'
10/29/2025FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 6Ulinzi Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Ulinzi Stars39%
×Draw31%
Bidco United31%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ulinzi Stars
1.09
Bidco United
0.93

Ulinzi Stars creates 17% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 33 away

creates per match

Ulinzi Stars
1.06
Bidco United
0.73

allows per match

Ulinzi Stars
1.13
Bidco United
1.12

finishing

Ulinzi Stars+0.00on par
Bidco United+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ulinzi Stars ↓

Bidco United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Ulinzi Stars or draw
69%
Ulinzi Stars or Bidco United
69%
Draw or Bidco United
61%

Winning margin

Ulinzi Stars wins by 2+
16%
Bidco United wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Ulinzi Stars 1+ goals
66%
Ulinzi Stars 2+ goals
30%
Ulinzi Stars 3+ goals
10%
Bidco United 1+ goals
61%
Bidco United 2+ goals
24%
Bidco United 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Ulinzi Stars (draw refunded)
56%
Bidco United (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ulinzi Stars at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.13 · 16 matches

Bidco United away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.12 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ulinzi Stars attack 1.06 + Bidco United defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.09

Bidco United attack 0.73 + Ulinzi Stars defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Ulinzi Stars scores more
39%
level
31%
Bidco United scores more
31%

Ulinzi Stars at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Ulinzi Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

57'
C. Akite
60'
T. Wainaina
76'
B. Muchiri

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FKF Premier League: Ulinzi Stars 1–2 Bidco United

Bidco United beat Ulinzi Stars 2-1 in FKF Premier League on October 29, 2025.

Goals: C. Akite (57'), T. Wainaina (60'), B. Muchiri (76').

The match was played at Ulinzi Sports Complex in Nairobi.