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Ulinzi Stars vs Bidco United — FKF Premier League 2018

Ulinzi Stars
Ulinzi Stars
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Bidco United
Bidco United
11/5/2023FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 10Ulinzi Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 101+ matches

Ulinzi Stars40%
×Draw32%
Bidco United28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ulinzi Stars
1.05
Bidco United
0.82

Ulinzi Stars creates 28% more chances

Season form · 144 home / 101 away

creates per match

Ulinzi Stars
1.06
Bidco United
0.85

allows per match

Ulinzi Stars
0.80
Bidco United
1.04

finishing

Ulinzi Stars+0.00on par
Bidco United+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ulinzi Stars ↓

Bidco United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–113%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Ulinzi Stars or draw
72%
Ulinzi Stars or Bidco United
68%
Draw or Bidco United
60%

Winning margin

Ulinzi Stars wins by 2+
16%
Bidco United wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Ulinzi Stars 1+ goals
65%
Ulinzi Stars 2+ goals
28%
Ulinzi Stars 3+ goals
9%
Bidco United 1+ goals
56%
Bidco United 2+ goals
20%
Bidco United 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Ulinzi Stars (draw refunded)
59%
Bidco United (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ulinzi Stars at home — creates 1.06, concedes 0.80 · 144 matches

Bidco United away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.04 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ulinzi Stars attack 1.06 + Bidco United defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.05

Bidco United attack 0.85 + Ulinzi Stars defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Ulinzi Stars scores more
40%
level
32%
Bidco United scores more
28%

Ulinzi Stars at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Ulinzi Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FKF Premier League: Ulinzi Stars 0–1 Bidco United

Bidco United beat Ulinzi Stars 1-0 in FKF Premier League on November 5, 2023.

The match was played at Ulinzi Sports Complex in Nairobi.