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Ulinzi Stars vs AFC Leopards — FKF Premier League 2018

Ulinzi Stars
Ulinzi Stars
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
AFC Leopards
AFC Leopards
6/23/2024FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 31Ulinzi Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 144+ matches

Ulinzi Stars36%
×Draw31%
AFC Leopards33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ulinzi Stars
1.04
AFC Leopards
0.98

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 144 home / 146 away

creates per match

Ulinzi Stars
1.06
AFC Leopards
1.17

allows per match

Ulinzi Stars
0.80
AFC Leopards
1.03

finishing

Ulinzi Stars+0.00on par
AFC Leopards+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ulinzi Stars ↓

AFC Leopards →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–014%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Ulinzi Stars or draw
67%
Ulinzi Stars or AFC Leopards
69%
Draw or AFC Leopards
64%

Winning margin

Ulinzi Stars wins by 2+
14%
AFC Leopards wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Ulinzi Stars 1+ goals
65%
Ulinzi Stars 2+ goals
28%
Ulinzi Stars 3+ goals
9%
AFC Leopards 1+ goals
62%
AFC Leopards 2+ goals
26%
AFC Leopards 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Ulinzi Stars (draw refunded)
52%
AFC Leopards (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ulinzi Stars at home — creates 1.06, concedes 0.80 · 144 matches

AFC Leopards away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.03 · 146 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ulinzi Stars attack 1.06 + AFC Leopards defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.04

AFC Leopards attack 1.17 + Ulinzi Stars defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Ulinzi Stars scores more
36%
level
31%
AFC Leopards scores more
33%

Ulinzi Stars at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Ulinzi Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ulinzi Stars vs AFC Leopards

AFC Leopards beat Ulinzi Stars 1-0 in FKF Premier League on June 23, 2024.

The match was played at Ulinzi Sports Complex in Nairobi.