Ulfstind 3–2 Sortland: Result & Stats

Ulfstind

FT

3 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Sortland

T. Aloyseous 85'

G. Olsen 69'

S. Haugen 60'

N. Rodsand 86'

M. Abelsen 79'

9/20/2025

3. Division - Girone 1 · Group 1 - 21Tønsnes kunstgress

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Ulfstind71%

×Draw15%

Sortland15%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UlfstindExpected goals in this matchSortland

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.27

1.50

Ulfstind

3.27

Sortland

1.50

Ulfstind creates 118% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

2.54

creates per match

1.23

1.77

allows per match

4.00

creates per match

Ulfstind

2.54

Sortland

1.23

allows per match

Ulfstind

1.77

Sortland

4.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ulfstind+0.00on par

Sortland+0.00on par

Total goals

Over85
Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes75
No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ulfstind ↓

Sortland →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–11%

0–21%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–03%

1–14%

1–23%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–18%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–16%

4–25%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 79% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

95%5%2.5

85%15%3.5

69%31%4.5

49%51%

Double chance

Ulfstind or draw

85%

Ulfstind or Sortland

85%

Draw or Sortland

29%

Winning margin

Ulfstind wins by 2+

52%

Sortland wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Ulfstind 1+ goals

96%

Ulfstind 2+ goals

83%

Ulfstind 3+ goals

62%

Sortland 1+ goals

78%

Sortland 2+ goals

44%

Sortland 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Ulfstind (draw refunded)

83%

Sortland (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

70%

Both score & under 3

4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ulfstind at home — creates 2.54, concedes 1.77 · 13 matches

Sortland away — creates 1.23, concedes 4.00 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ulfstind attack 2.54 + Sortland defence 4.00 → ÷2 → 3.27

Sortland attack 1.23 + Ulfstind defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Ulfstind scores more

71%

level

15%

Sortland scores more

15%

Ulfstind at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Ulfstind will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

60'

69'

79'

85'

86'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff