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Ulfstind vs Mjølner — 3. Division - Girone 6 2020

Ulfstind
Ulfstind
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Mjølner
Mjølner
6/2/20243. Division - Girone 63. Division - Girone 6 · Group 6 - 9TUIL Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Ulfstind47%
×Draw19%
Mjølner33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ulfstind
2.47
Mjølner
2.06

Ulfstind creates 20% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 46 away

creates per match

Ulfstind
2.77
Mjølner
1.57

allows per match

Ulfstind
2.54
Mjølner
2.17

finishing

Ulfstind+0.00on par
Mjølner+0.00on par

Total goals

83%Over
  • Over83
  • Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

80%Yes
  • Yes80
  • No20

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ulfstind ↓

Mjølner →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
83%17%3.5
66%34%4.5
46%54%

Double chance

Ulfstind or draw
67%
Ulfstind or Mjølner
81%
Draw or Mjølner
53%

Winning margin

Ulfstind wins by 2+
29%
Mjølner wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Ulfstind 1+ goals
91%
Ulfstind 2+ goals
70%
Ulfstind 3+ goals
44%
Mjølner 1+ goals
87%
Mjølner 2+ goals
61%
Mjølner 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Ulfstind (draw refunded)
59%
Mjølner (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
74%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ulfstind at home — creates 2.77, concedes 2.54 · 13 matches

Mjølner away — creates 1.57, concedes 2.17 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ulfstind attack 2.77 + Mjølner defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 2.47

Mjølner attack 1.57 + Ulfstind defence 2.54 → ÷2 → 2.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Ulfstind scores more
47%
level
19%
Mjølner scores more
33%

Ulfstind at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Ulfstind will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 6: Ulfstind 4–0 Mjølner

Ulfstind beat Mjølner 4-0 in 3. Division - Girone 6 on June 2, 2024.

The match was played at TUIL Arena in Tromsø.