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Ulfstind vs HamKam II — 3. Division - Girone 6 2020

Ulfstind
Ulfstind
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
HamKam II
HamKam II
9/8/20243. Division - Girone 63. Division - Girone 6 · Group 6 - 20TUIL Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Ulfstind49%
×Draw18%
HamKam II33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ulfstind
2.88
HamKam II
2.38

Ulfstind creates 21% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

creates per match

Ulfstind
2.77
HamKam II
2.23

allows per match

Ulfstind
2.54
HamKam II
3.00

finishing

Ulfstind+0.00on par
HamKam II+0.00on par

Total goals

89%Over
  • Over89
  • Under11

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

85%Yes
  • Yes85
  • No15

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ulfstind ↓

HamKam II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–02%
1–14%
1–24%
1–33%
1–42%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–26%
3–35%
3–43%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–24%
4–33%
4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (6%) · grid covers 79% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
97%3%2.5
89%11%3.5
76%24%4.5
59%41%

Double chance

Ulfstind or draw
67%
Ulfstind or HamKam II
82%
Draw or HamKam II
51%

Winning margin

Ulfstind wins by 2+
31%
HamKam II wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Ulfstind 1+ goals
94%
Ulfstind 2+ goals
78%
Ulfstind 3+ goals
54%
HamKam II 1+ goals
91%
HamKam II 2+ goals
68%
HamKam II 3+ goals
42%

Draw no bet

Ulfstind (draw refunded)
60%
HamKam II (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
82%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ulfstind at home — creates 2.77, concedes 2.54 · 13 matches

HamKam II away — creates 2.23, concedes 3.00 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ulfstind attack 2.77 + HamKam II defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.88

HamKam II attack 2.23 + Ulfstind defence 2.54 → ÷2 → 2.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Ulfstind scores more
49%
level
18%
HamKam II scores more
33%

Ulfstind at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Ulfstind will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ulfstind vs HamKam II

HamKam II beat Ulfstind 4-1 in 3. Division - Girone 6 on September 8, 2024.

The match was played at TUIL Arena in Tromsø.