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Ulfstind vs Funnefoss / Vormsund — 3. Division - Girone 1 2021

Ulfstind
Ulfstind
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Funnefoss / Vormsund
Funnefoss / Vormsund
J. Engstad Indal 88'
E. Ness 74'
A. Pedersen 60', 26'
Unknown 7'
6/14/20253. Division - Girone 13. Division - Girone 1 · Group 1 - 10TUIL Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Ulfstind57%
×Draw19%
Funnefoss / Vormsund25%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ulfstind
2.59
Funnefoss / Vormsund
1.69

Ulfstind creates 53% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 20 away

creates per match

Ulfstind
2.54
Funnefoss / Vormsund
1.60

allows per match

Ulfstind
1.77
Funnefoss / Vormsund
2.65

finishing

Ulfstind+0.00on par
Funnefoss / Vormsund+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ulfstind ↓

Funnefoss / Vormsund →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–16%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
61%39%4.5
41%59%

Double chance

Ulfstind or draw
75%
Ulfstind or Funnefoss / Vormsund
81%
Draw or Funnefoss / Vormsund
43%

Winning margin

Ulfstind wins by 2+
36%
Funnefoss / Vormsund wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Ulfstind 1+ goals
92%
Ulfstind 2+ goals
73%
Ulfstind 3+ goals
47%
Funnefoss / Vormsund 1+ goals
82%
Funnefoss / Vormsund 2+ goals
50%
Funnefoss / Vormsund 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Ulfstind (draw refunded)
70%
Funnefoss / Vormsund (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
69%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ulfstind at home — creates 2.54, concedes 1.77 · 13 matches

Funnefoss / Vormsund away — creates 1.60, concedes 2.65 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ulfstind attack 2.54 + Funnefoss / Vormsund defence 2.65 → ÷2 → 2.59

Funnefoss / Vormsund attack 1.60 + Ulfstind defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Ulfstind scores more
57%
level
19%
Funnefoss / Vormsund scores more
25%

Ulfstind at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Ulfstind will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'
26'
A. Pedersen
60'
A. Pedersen
74'
E. Ness
88'
J. Engstad Indal

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ulfstind vs Funnefoss / Vormsund

Ulfstind beat Funnefoss / Vormsund 4-1 in 3. Division - Girone 1 on June 14, 2025.

Goals: ? (7'), A. Pedersen (26', 60'), E. Ness (74'), J. Engstad Indal (88').

The match was played at TUIL Arena in Tromsø.