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Úlfarnir vs Hamar — Cup 2019

Úlfarnir
Úlfarnir
FT
4 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Hamar
Hamar
3/10/2026CupCup · 1st Round

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Úlfarnir83%
×Draw10%
Hamar7%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Úlfarnir
4.00
Hamar
1.20

Úlfarnir creates 233% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

creates per match

Úlfarnir
3.20
Hamar
1.20

allows per match

Úlfarnir
1.20
Hamar
4.80

finishing

Úlfarnir+0.00on par
Hamar+0.00on par

Total goals

88%Over
  • Over88
  • Under12

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Úlfarnir ↓

Hamar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–02%
1–13%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–07%
4–18%
4–25%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 70% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
88%12%3.5
73%27%4.5
54%46%

Double chance

Úlfarnir or draw
93%
Úlfarnir or Hamar
90%
Draw or Hamar
17%

Winning margin

Úlfarnir wins by 2+
67%
Hamar wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Úlfarnir 1+ goals
98%
Úlfarnir 2+ goals
90%
Úlfarnir 3+ goals
73%
Hamar 1+ goals
70%
Hamar 2+ goals
34%
Hamar 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Úlfarnir (draw refunded)
92%
Hamar (draw refunded)
8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Úlfarnir at home — creates 3.20, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

Hamar away — creates 1.20, concedes 4.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Úlfarnir attack 3.20 + Hamar defence 4.80 → ÷2 → 4.00

Hamar attack 1.20 + Úlfarnir defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 83%?"

Úlfarnir scores more
83%
level
10%
Hamar scores more
7%

Úlfarnir at 83% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 83% does not mean "Úlfarnir will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Úlfarnir vs Hamar

Úlfarnir beat Hamar 4-2 in Cup on March 10, 2026.