Ulaanbaatar 0–2 Taichung Futuro: Result & Stats

Ulaanbaatar

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Taichung Futuro

10/5/2023

AFC Cup · Group Stage - 2Football Centre MFF

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Ulaanbaatar53%

×Draw23%

Taichung Futuro24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UlaanbaatarExpected goals in this matchTaichung Futuro

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.10

Ulaanbaatar

1.77

Taichung Futuro

1.10

Ulaanbaatar creates 61% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 5 away

1.33

creates per match

1.20

1.00

allows per match

2.20

creates per match

Ulaanbaatar

1.33

Taichung Futuro

1.20

allows per match

Ulaanbaatar

1.00

Taichung Futuro

2.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ulaanbaatar+0.00on par

Taichung Futuro+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ulaanbaatar ↓

Taichung Futuro →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Ulaanbaatar or draw

76%

Ulaanbaatar or Taichung Futuro

77%

Draw or Taichung Futuro

47%

Winning margin

Ulaanbaatar wins by 2+

29%

Taichung Futuro wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Ulaanbaatar 1+ goals

83%

Ulaanbaatar 2+ goals

53%

Ulaanbaatar 3+ goals

26%

Taichung Futuro 1+ goals

67%

Taichung Futuro 2+ goals

30%

Taichung Futuro 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Ulaanbaatar (draw refunded)

69%

Taichung Futuro (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ulaanbaatar at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Taichung Futuro away — creates 1.20, concedes 2.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ulaanbaatar attack 1.33 + Taichung Futuro defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.77

Taichung Futuro attack 1.20 + Ulaanbaatar defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Ulaanbaatar scores more

53%

level

23%

Taichung Futuro scores more

24%

Ulaanbaatar at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Ulaanbaatar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff