Ulaanbaatar 4–2 Bayanzürkh Sporting: Result & Stats

Ulaanbaatar

FT

4 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Bayanzürkh Sporting

5/18/2024

Premier League · Round 22Football Centre MFF

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Ulaanbaatar61%

×Draw17%

Bayanzürkh Sporting21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UlaanbaatarExpected goals in this matchBayanzürkh Sporting

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.90

1.71

Ulaanbaatar

2.90

Bayanzürkh Sporting

1.71

Ulaanbaatar creates 70% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 28 away

3.00

creates per match

2.29

1.14

allows per match

2.79

creates per match

Ulaanbaatar

3.00

Bayanzürkh Sporting

2.29

allows per match

Ulaanbaatar

1.14

Bayanzürkh Sporting

2.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ulaanbaatar+0.00on par

Bayanzürkh Sporting+0.00on par

Total goals

Over83
Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes77
No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ulaanbaatar ↓

Bayanzürkh Sporting →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–03%

1–15%

1–24%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–15%

4–24%

4–33%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

83%17%3.5

67%33%4.5

47%53%

Double chance

Ulaanbaatar or draw

79%

Ulaanbaatar or Bayanzürkh Sporting

83%

Draw or Bayanzürkh Sporting

39%

Winning margin

Ulaanbaatar wins by 2+

42%

Bayanzürkh Sporting wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Ulaanbaatar 1+ goals

94%

Ulaanbaatar 2+ goals

78%

Ulaanbaatar 3+ goals

54%

Bayanzürkh Sporting 1+ goals

82%

Bayanzürkh Sporting 2+ goals

51%

Bayanzürkh Sporting 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Ulaanbaatar (draw refunded)

74%

Bayanzürkh Sporting (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

72%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ulaanbaatar at home — creates 3.00, concedes 1.14 · 64 matches

Bayanzürkh Sporting away — creates 2.29, concedes 2.79 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ulaanbaatar attack 3.00 + Bayanzürkh Sporting defence 2.79 → ÷2 → 2.90

Bayanzürkh Sporting attack 2.29 + Ulaanbaatar defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Ulaanbaatar scores more

61%

level

17%

Bayanzürkh Sporting scores more

21%

Ulaanbaatar at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Ulaanbaatar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff