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Ulaanbaatar City vs UB Mazaalaynuud — Premier League 2020

Ulaanbaatar City
Ulaanbaatar City
FT
3 – 0
UB Mazaalaynuud
UB Mazaalaynuud
7/5/2020Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 1Football Centre MFF

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Ulaanbaatar City74%
×Draw14%
UB Mazaalaynuud12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ulaanbaatar City
3.04
UB Mazaalaynuud
1.17

Ulaanbaatar City creates 160% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 18 away

creates per match

Ulaanbaatar City
2.64
UB Mazaalaynuud
0.72

allows per match

Ulaanbaatar City
1.61
UB Mazaalaynuud
3.44

finishing

Ulaanbaatar City+0.00on par
UB Mazaalaynuud+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ulaanbaatar City ↓

UB Mazaalaynuud →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–15%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–16%
4–24%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
59%41%4.5
39%61%

Double chance

Ulaanbaatar City or draw
88%
Ulaanbaatar City or UB Mazaalaynuud
86%
Draw or UB Mazaalaynuud
26%

Winning margin

Ulaanbaatar City wins by 2+
54%
UB Mazaalaynuud wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Ulaanbaatar City 1+ goals
95%
Ulaanbaatar City 2+ goals
80%
Ulaanbaatar City 3+ goals
57%
UB Mazaalaynuud 1+ goals
69%
UB Mazaalaynuud 2+ goals
33%
UB Mazaalaynuud 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Ulaanbaatar City (draw refunded)
86%
UB Mazaalaynuud (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ulaanbaatar City at home — creates 2.64, concedes 1.61 · 56 matches

UB Mazaalaynuud away — creates 0.72, concedes 3.44 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ulaanbaatar City attack 2.64 + UB Mazaalaynuud defence 3.44 → ÷2 → 3.04

UB Mazaalaynuud attack 0.72 + Ulaanbaatar City defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Ulaanbaatar City scores more
74%
level
14%
UB Mazaalaynuud scores more
12%

Ulaanbaatar City at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Ulaanbaatar City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ulaanbaatar City vs UB Mazaalaynuud

Ulaanbaatar City beat UB Mazaalaynuud 3-0 in Premier League on July 5, 2020.

The match was played at Football Centre MFF in Ulaanbaatar.