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UB Mazaalaynuud vs Ulaanbaatar City — Premier League 2020

UB Mazaalaynuud
UB Mazaalaynuud
FT
1 – 3
Ulaanbaatar City
Ulaanbaatar City
10/3/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 18Football Centre MFF

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

UB Mazaalaynuud12%
×Draw15%
Ulaanbaatar City73%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

UB Mazaalaynuud
1.13
Ulaanbaatar City
2.94

Ulaanbaatar City creates 160% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 55 away

creates per match

UB Mazaalaynuud
0.50
Ulaanbaatar City
2.31

allows per match

UB Mazaalaynuud
3.56
Ulaanbaatar City
1.76

finishing

UB Mazaalaynuud+0.00on par
Ulaanbaatar City+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UB Mazaalaynuud ↓

Ulaanbaatar City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–28%
0–37%
0–45%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–29%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–25%
2–35%
2–44%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
57%43%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

UB Mazaalaynuud or draw
27%
UB Mazaalaynuud or Ulaanbaatar City
85%
Draw or Ulaanbaatar City
88%

Winning margin

UB Mazaalaynuud wins by 2+
4%
Ulaanbaatar City wins by 2+
53%

Team goals

UB Mazaalaynuud 1+ goals
68%
UB Mazaalaynuud 2+ goals
31%
UB Mazaalaynuud 3+ goals
11%
Ulaanbaatar City 1+ goals
95%
Ulaanbaatar City 2+ goals
79%
Ulaanbaatar City 3+ goals
55%

Draw no bet

UB Mazaalaynuud (draw refunded)
14%
Ulaanbaatar City (draw refunded)
86%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UB Mazaalaynuud at home — creates 0.50, concedes 3.56 · 18 matches

Ulaanbaatar City away — creates 2.31, concedes 1.76 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UB Mazaalaynuud attack 0.50 + Ulaanbaatar City defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.13

Ulaanbaatar City attack 2.31 + UB Mazaalaynuud defence 3.56 → ÷2 → 2.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

UB Mazaalaynuud scores more
12%
level
15%
Ulaanbaatar City scores more
73%

Ulaanbaatar City at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Ulaanbaatar City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: UB Mazaalaynuud vs Ulaanbaatar City

Ulaanbaatar City beat UB Mazaalaynuud 3-1 in Premier League on October 3, 2021.

The match was played at Football Centre MFF in Ulaanbaatar.