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Ulaanbaatar City vs Sumida Gepro — Premier League 2020

Ulaanbaatar City
Ulaanbaatar City
FT
6 – 0
Sumida Gepro
Sumida Gepro
8/1/2020Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 6Football Centre MFF

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Ulaanbaatar City86%
×Draw9%
Sumida Gepro5%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ulaanbaatar City
3.88
Sumida Gepro
0.92

Ulaanbaatar City creates 322% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 9 away

creates per match

Ulaanbaatar City
2.64
Sumida Gepro
0.22

allows per match

Ulaanbaatar City
1.61
Sumida Gepro
5.11

finishing

Ulaanbaatar City+0.00on par
Sumida Gepro+0.00on par

Total goals

84%Over
  • Over84
  • Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ulaanbaatar City ↓

Sumida Gepro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–13%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–09%
4–18%
4–24%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (9%) · grid covers 72% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
84%16%3.5
67%33%4.5
47%53%

Double chance

Ulaanbaatar City or draw
95%
Ulaanbaatar City or Sumida Gepro
91%
Draw or Sumida Gepro
14%

Winning margin

Ulaanbaatar City wins by 2+
72%
Sumida Gepro wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Ulaanbaatar City 1+ goals
98%
Ulaanbaatar City 2+ goals
89%
Ulaanbaatar City 3+ goals
72%
Sumida Gepro 1+ goals
60%
Sumida Gepro 2+ goals
23%
Sumida Gepro 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Ulaanbaatar City (draw refunded)
95%
Sumida Gepro (draw refunded)
5%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ulaanbaatar City at home — creates 2.64, concedes 1.61 · 56 matches

Sumida Gepro away — creates 0.22, concedes 5.11 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ulaanbaatar City attack 2.64 + Sumida Gepro defence 5.11 → ÷2 → 3.88

Sumida Gepro attack 0.22 + Ulaanbaatar City defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 86%?"

Ulaanbaatar City scores more
86%
level
9%
Sumida Gepro scores more
5%

Ulaanbaatar City at 86% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 86% does not mean "Ulaanbaatar City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ulaanbaatar City vs Sumida Gepro

Ulaanbaatar City beat Sumida Gepro 6-0 in Premier League on August 1, 2020.

The match was played at Football Centre MFF in Ulaanbaatar.