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Ulaanbaatar City vs Lions — Premier League 2020

Ulaanbaatar City
Ulaanbaatar City
FT
3 – 2
Lions
Lions
9/8/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 10Football Centre MFF

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Ulaanbaatar City66%
×Draw16%
Lions18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ulaanbaatar City
3.16
Lions
1.64

Ulaanbaatar City creates 93% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 18 away

creates per match

Ulaanbaatar City
2.64
Lions
1.67

allows per match

Ulaanbaatar City
1.61
Lions
3.67

finishing

Ulaanbaatar City+0.00on par
Lions+0.00on par

Total goals

85%Over
  • Over85
  • Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

77%Yes
  • Yes77
  • No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ulaanbaatar City ↓

Lions →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–14%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–16%
4–25%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
85%15%3.5
69%31%4.5
50%50%

Double chance

Ulaanbaatar City or draw
82%
Ulaanbaatar City or Lions
84%
Draw or Lions
34%

Winning margin

Ulaanbaatar City wins by 2+
47%
Lions wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Ulaanbaatar City 1+ goals
96%
Ulaanbaatar City 2+ goals
82%
Ulaanbaatar City 3+ goals
59%
Lions 1+ goals
81%
Lions 2+ goals
49%
Lions 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Ulaanbaatar City (draw refunded)
79%
Lions (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
73%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ulaanbaatar City at home — creates 2.64, concedes 1.61 · 56 matches

Lions away — creates 1.67, concedes 3.67 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ulaanbaatar City attack 2.64 + Lions defence 3.67 → ÷2 → 3.16

Lions attack 1.67 + Ulaanbaatar City defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Ulaanbaatar City scores more
66%
level
16%
Lions scores more
18%

Ulaanbaatar City at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Ulaanbaatar City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Ulaanbaatar City 3–2 Lions

Ulaanbaatar City beat Lions 3-2 in Premier League on September 8, 2021.

The match was played at Football Centre MFF in Ulaanbaatar.