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Ulaanbaatar City vs Khoromkhon — Premier League 2020

Ulaanbaatar City
Ulaanbaatar City
FT
1 – 1
Khoromkhon
Khoromkhon
8/8/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 3Football Centre MFF

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Ulaanbaatar City62%
×Draw17%
Khoromkhon21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ulaanbaatar City
3.10
Khoromkhon
1.81

Ulaanbaatar City creates 71% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 57 away

creates per match

Ulaanbaatar City
2.64
Khoromkhon
2.00

allows per match

Ulaanbaatar City
1.61
Khoromkhon
3.56

finishing

Ulaanbaatar City+0.00on par
Khoromkhon+0.00on par

Total goals

86%Over
  • Over86
  • Under14

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

80%Yes
  • Yes80
  • No20

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ulaanbaatar City ↓

Khoromkhon →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–02%
1–14%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–25%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
86%14%3.5
71%29%4.5
52%48%

Double chance

Ulaanbaatar City or draw
79%
Ulaanbaatar City or Khoromkhon
83%
Draw or Khoromkhon
38%

Winning margin

Ulaanbaatar City wins by 2+
43%
Khoromkhon wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Ulaanbaatar City 1+ goals
95%
Ulaanbaatar City 2+ goals
81%
Ulaanbaatar City 3+ goals
58%
Khoromkhon 1+ goals
84%
Khoromkhon 2+ goals
54%
Khoromkhon 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Ulaanbaatar City (draw refunded)
75%
Khoromkhon (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
75%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ulaanbaatar City at home — creates 2.64, concedes 1.61 · 56 matches

Khoromkhon away — creates 2.00, concedes 3.56 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ulaanbaatar City attack 2.64 + Khoromkhon defence 3.56 → ÷2 → 3.10

Khoromkhon attack 2.00 + Ulaanbaatar City defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Ulaanbaatar City scores more
62%
level
17%
Khoromkhon scores more
21%

Ulaanbaatar City at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Ulaanbaatar City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Ulaanbaatar City 1–1 Khoromkhon

Ulaanbaatar City and Khoromkhon drew 1-1 in Premier League on August 8, 2021.

The match was played at Football Centre MFF in Ulaanbaatar.