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Khoromkhon vs Ulaanbaatar City — Premier League 2020

Khoromkhon
Khoromkhon
FT
5 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Ulaanbaatar City
Ulaanbaatar City
4/12/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 9Football Centre MFF

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Khoromkhon24%
×Draw18%
Ulaanbaatar City58%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Khoromkhon
1.81
Ulaanbaatar City
2.80

Ulaanbaatar City creates 55% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 55 away

creates per match

Khoromkhon
1.87
Ulaanbaatar City
2.31

allows per match

Khoromkhon
3.30
Ulaanbaatar City
1.76

finishing

Khoromkhon+0.00on par
Ulaanbaatar City+0.00on par

Total goals

83%Over
  • Over83
  • Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

78%Yes
  • Yes78
  • No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khoromkhon ↓

Ulaanbaatar City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–24%
0–34%
0–43%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–27%
1–37%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–34%
3–43%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
83%17%3.5
67%33%4.5
47%53%

Double chance

Khoromkhon or draw
42%
Khoromkhon or Ulaanbaatar City
82%
Draw or Ulaanbaatar City
76%

Winning margin

Khoromkhon wins by 2+
12%
Ulaanbaatar City wins by 2+
38%

Team goals

Khoromkhon 1+ goals
84%
Khoromkhon 2+ goals
54%
Khoromkhon 3+ goals
27%
Ulaanbaatar City 1+ goals
94%
Ulaanbaatar City 2+ goals
76%
Ulaanbaatar City 3+ goals
52%

Draw no bet

Khoromkhon (draw refunded)
30%
Ulaanbaatar City (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
73%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khoromkhon at home — creates 1.87, concedes 3.30 · 61 matches

Ulaanbaatar City away — creates 2.31, concedes 1.76 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khoromkhon attack 1.87 + Ulaanbaatar City defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.81

Ulaanbaatar City attack 2.31 + Khoromkhon defence 3.30 → ÷2 → 2.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Khoromkhon scores more
24%
level
18%
Ulaanbaatar City scores more
58%

Ulaanbaatar City at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Ulaanbaatar City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Khoromkhon 5–0 Ulaanbaatar City

Khoromkhon beat Ulaanbaatar City 5-0 in Premier League on April 12, 2023.

The match was played at Football Centre MFF in Ulaanbaatar.