Ulaanbaatar City 3–3 Khangarid: Result & Stats

Ulaanbaatar City

FT

3 – 3

HT: 2 – 2

Khangarid

5/22/2022

Premier League · Round 12Football Centre MFF

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Ulaanbaatar City46%

×Draw20%

Khangarid34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ulaanbaatar CityExpected goals in this matchKhangarid

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.25

1.94

Ulaanbaatar City

2.25

Khangarid

1.94

Ulaanbaatar City creates 16% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 81 away

2.64

creates per match

2.26

1.61

allows per match

1.85

creates per match

Ulaanbaatar City

2.64

Khangarid

2.26

allows per match

Ulaanbaatar City

1.61

Khangarid

1.85

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ulaanbaatar City+0.00on par

Khangarid+0.00on par

Total goals

Over79
Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes76
No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ulaanbaatar City ↓

Khangarid →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–26%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–25%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

79%21%3.5

60%40%4.5

40%60%

Double chance

Ulaanbaatar City or draw

66%

Ulaanbaatar City or Khangarid

80%

Draw or Khangarid

54%

Winning margin

Ulaanbaatar City wins by 2+

27%

Khangarid wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Ulaanbaatar City 1+ goals

89%

Ulaanbaatar City 2+ goals

65%

Ulaanbaatar City 3+ goals

39%

Khangarid 1+ goals

86%

Khangarid 2+ goals

58%

Khangarid 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

Ulaanbaatar City (draw refunded)

57%

Khangarid (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

70%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ulaanbaatar City at home — creates 2.64, concedes 1.61 · 56 matches

Khangarid away — creates 2.26, concedes 1.85 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ulaanbaatar City attack 2.64 + Khangarid defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 2.25

Khangarid attack 2.26 + Ulaanbaatar City defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Ulaanbaatar City scores more

46%

level

20%

Khangarid scores more

34%

Ulaanbaatar City at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Ulaanbaatar City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff