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ULA FC vs Yaracuy FC — Segunda División 2018

ULA FC
ULA FC
FT
0 – 0
Yaracuy FC
Yaracuy FC
8/4/2021Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 5Estadio Olímpico Guillermo Soto Rosa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

ULA FC41%
×Draw25%
Yaracuy FC34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ULA FC
1.48
Yaracuy FC
1.34

ULA FC creates 10% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 47 away

creates per match

ULA FC
1.62
Yaracuy FC
1.30

allows per match

ULA FC
1.38
Yaracuy FC
1.34

finishing

ULA FC+0.00on par
Yaracuy FC+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ULA FC ↓

Yaracuy FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

ULA FC or draw
66%
ULA FC or Yaracuy FC
75%
Draw or Yaracuy FC
59%

Winning margin

ULA FC wins by 2+
20%
Yaracuy FC wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

ULA FC 1+ goals
77%
ULA FC 2+ goals
43%
ULA FC 3+ goals
19%
Yaracuy FC 1+ goals
74%
Yaracuy FC 2+ goals
39%
Yaracuy FC 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

ULA FC (draw refunded)
54%
Yaracuy FC (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ULA FC at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.38 · 52 matches

Yaracuy FC away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.34 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ULA FC attack 1.62 + Yaracuy FC defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.48

Yaracuy FC attack 1.30 + ULA FC defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

ULA FC scores more
41%
level
25%
Yaracuy FC scores more
34%

ULA FC at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "ULA FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: ULA FC vs Yaracuy FC

ULA FC and Yaracuy FC drew 0-0 in Segunda División on August 4, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Guillermo Soto Rosa in Mérida.