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ULA FC vs Fundación Lara Deportiva — Segunda División 2018

ULA FC
ULA FC
FT
1 – 0
Fundación Lara Deportiva
Fundación Lara Deportiva
R. Castrillo 83'
10/9/2021Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 17Estadio Olímpico Guillermo Soto Rosa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

ULA FC43%
×Draw26%
Fundación Lara Deportiva31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ULA FC
1.46
Fundación Lara Deportiva
1.19

ULA FC creates 23% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 77 away

creates per match

ULA FC
1.62
Fundación Lara Deportiva
1.00

allows per match

ULA FC
1.38
Fundación Lara Deportiva
1.30

finishing

ULA FC+0.00on par
Fundación Lara Deportiva+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ULA FC ↓

Fundación Lara Deportiva →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

ULA FC or draw
69%
ULA FC or Fundación Lara Deportiva
74%
Draw or Fundación Lara Deportiva
57%

Winning margin

ULA FC wins by 2+
21%
Fundación Lara Deportiva wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

ULA FC 1+ goals
77%
ULA FC 2+ goals
43%
ULA FC 3+ goals
18%
Fundación Lara Deportiva 1+ goals
70%
Fundación Lara Deportiva 2+ goals
33%
Fundación Lara Deportiva 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

ULA FC (draw refunded)
58%
Fundación Lara Deportiva (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ULA FC at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.38 · 52 matches

Fundación Lara Deportiva away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.30 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ULA FC attack 1.62 + Fundación Lara Deportiva defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.46

Fundación Lara Deportiva attack 1.00 + ULA FC defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

ULA FC scores more
43%
level
26%
Fundación Lara Deportiva scores more
31%

ULA FC at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "ULA FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

83'
R. Castrillo

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: ULA FC vs Fundación Lara Deportiva

ULA FC beat Fundación Lara Deportiva 1-0 in Segunda División on October 9, 2021.

Goals: R. Castrillo (83').

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Guillermo Soto Rosa in Mérida.