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Ukraine W vs Serbia W — Friendlies Women 2026

Ukraine W
Ukraine W
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Serbia W
Serbia W
O. Ovdiychuk 44'
A. Poljak 72'
2/20/2021Friendlies WomenFriendlies Women · Friendlies 2Gold City Sports Complex Field 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Ukraine W31%
×Draw24%
Serbia W45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ukraine W
1.31
Serbia W
1.63

Serbia W creates 24% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 8 away

creates per match

Ukraine W
1.50
Serbia W
2.25

allows per match

Ukraine W
1.00
Serbia W
1.13

finishing

Ukraine W+0.00on par
Serbia W+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ukraine W ↓

Serbia W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Ukraine W or draw
55%
Ukraine W or Serbia W
76%
Draw or Serbia W
69%

Winning margin

Ukraine W wins by 2+
13%
Serbia W wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Ukraine W 1+ goals
73%
Ukraine W 2+ goals
38%
Ukraine W 3+ goals
14%
Serbia W 1+ goals
80%
Serbia W 2+ goals
48%
Serbia W 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Ukraine W (draw refunded)
41%
Serbia W (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ukraine W at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

Serbia W away — creates 2.25, concedes 1.13 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ukraine W attack 1.50 + Serbia W defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.31

Serbia W attack 2.25 + Ukraine W defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Ukraine W scores more
31%
level
24%
Serbia W scores more
45%

Serbia W at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Serbia W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

44'
O. Ovdiychuk
72'
A. Poljak

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Women: Ukraine W 1–1 Serbia W

Ukraine W and Serbia W drew 1-1 in Friendlies Women on February 20, 2021.

Goals: O. Ovdiychuk (44'), A. Poljak (72').

The match was played at Gold City Sports Complex Field 1 in Alanya.