Ukraine W 0–1 Iceland W: Result & Stats

Ukraine W

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Iceland W

T. K. Palmadottir 25'

6/5/2026

World Cup - Women - Qualification Europe · Group Stage - 5Stadion Miejski przy Solskiego 1 w Mielcu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Ukraine W24%

×Draw23%

Iceland W53%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ukraine WExpected goals in this matchIceland W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

1.83

Ukraine W

1.17

Iceland W

1.83

Iceland W creates 56% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

0.67

creates per match

0.33

3.33

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Ukraine W

0.67

Iceland W

0.33

allows per match

Ukraine W

3.33

Iceland W

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ukraine W+0.00on par

Iceland W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ukraine W ↓

Iceland W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–19%

0–28%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–33%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Ukraine W or draw

47%

Ukraine W or Iceland W

77%

Draw or Iceland W

76%

Winning margin

Ukraine W wins by 2+

10%

Iceland W wins by 2+

30%

Team goals

Ukraine W 1+ goals

69%

Ukraine W 2+ goals

33%

Ukraine W 3+ goals

11%

Iceland W 1+ goals

84%

Iceland W 2+ goals

54%

Iceland W 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Ukraine W (draw refunded)

32%

Iceland W (draw refunded)

68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ukraine W at home — creates 0.67, concedes 3.33 · 3 matches

Iceland W away — creates 0.33, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ukraine W attack 0.67 + Iceland W defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.17

Iceland W attack 0.33 + Ukraine W defence 3.33 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Ukraine W scores more

24%

level

23%

Iceland W scores more

53%

Iceland W at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Iceland W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'

G. Viggosdottir

15'

A. Petryk

25'

T. K. Palmadottir↳ S. Jessen

27'

L. Zaborovets

57'

V. Holovach← I. Hlushchenko

57'

V. Radionova← R. Kravchuk

58'

H. Eiriksdottir← E. Asgeirsdottir

70'

L. Boama← K. Vilhjalmsdottir

70'

K. Tryggvadottir← T. K. Palmadottir

73'

Y. Khrystiuk← N. Kunina

73'

76'

77'

88'

88'

I. Hermannsdottir← H. Antonsdottir

89'

S. Heidarsdottir

90+5'

D. Zomers

Ukraine

Iceland

1

18

4

6

19

8

16

▼

Antonsdot

20

⚽

▼

Palmadott

10

▼

Vilhjalms

5

▼

Asgeirsdo

3

A

▼

12

8

21

14

3

15

▼

Kunina

13

Zaborovet

11

Molodiuk

19

▼

Kravchuk

9

▼

Boychuk

20

▼

Hlushchen

Manager: Volodymyr Piatenko

57'▲V. Holovach←▼I. Hlushchenko

57'▲V. Radionova←▼R. Kravchuk

73'▲Y. Khrystiuk←▼N. Kunina

73'▲S. Kohut←▼T. Boychuk

Ukraine W substitutes

23Samson1Boklach7Holovach22Basanska17Khrystiuk10Radionova16Kohut18Kotiash2Podolska6Semkiv5Savka4Kotik

Manager: Thorsteinn Halldorsson

58'▲H. Eiriksdottir←▼E. Asgeirsdottir

70'▲L. Boama←▼K. Vilhjalmsdottir

70'▲K. Tryggvadottir←▼T. K. Palmadottir

88'▲D. Zomers←▼S. Jessen

88'▲I. Hermannsdottir←▼H. Antonsdottir

Iceland W substitutes

12Ivarsdottir13Birkisdottir14Eiriksdottir22Boama11Georgsdottir9Zomers15Gros2Eiriksdottir17Hermannsdottir7Tryggvadottir23Halldorsdottir