Ukraine W 3–2 Austria W: Result & Stats

Ukraine W

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 2

Austria W

O. Ovdiychuk 47'

R. Kravchuk 18'

N. Kozlova 14'

Y. Kotik 28' (OG)

S. Hillebrand 1'

12/1/2025

Friendlies Women · FriendliesEstadio El Palmar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Ukraine W38%

×Draw24%

Austria W38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ukraine WExpected goals in this matchAustria W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

Ukraine W

1.50

Austria W

1.50

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 4 home / 10 away

1.50

creates per match

2.00

1.00

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Ukraine W

1.50

Austria W

2.00

allows per match

Ukraine W

1.00

Austria W

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ukraine W+0.00on par

Austria W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ukraine W ↓

Austria W →

0–05%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Ukraine W or draw

62%

Ukraine W or Austria W

76%

Draw or Austria W

62%

Winning margin

Ukraine W wins by 2+

18%

Austria W wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Ukraine W 1+ goals

78%

Ukraine W 2+ goals

44%

Ukraine W 3+ goals

19%

Austria W 1+ goals

78%

Austria W 2+ goals

44%

Austria W 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Ukraine W (draw refunded)

50%

Austria W (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Ukraine W at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

Austria W away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.50 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Ukraine W attack 1.50 + Austria W defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.50

Austria W attack 2.00 + Ukraine W defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 38%?"

Ukraine W scores more

38%

level

24%

Austria W scores more

38%

Ukraine W at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Ukraine W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

S. Hillebrand↳ V. Pinther

14'

N. Kozlova↳ R. Kravchuk

18'

R. Kravchuk↳ O. Ovdiychuk

28'

Y. KotikOwn goal

30'

Y. Kalinina

43'

Y. Kotik

45+4'

D. Apanaschenko← A. Petryk

46'

S. Puntigam← K. Schiechtl

47'

O. Ovdiychuk

52'

K. Korsun

60'

V. Hanshaw← S. Hillebrand

60'

J. Hickelsberger-Fuller← V. Pinther

60'

E. Campbell← C. Brunold

66'

S. Kohut← Y. Kalinina

74'

I. Hlushchenko← R. Kravchuk

79'

M. Brunnthaler← M. Plattner

87'

N. Pantsulaya← N. Kozlova

87'

V. Radionova← O. Ovdiychuk

Ukraine

Austria

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

🥅

⚽

▼

Kozlova

▼

Petryk

Semkiv

⚽A

▼

Ovdiychuk

▼

Kalinina

⚽A

▼

Kravchuk

Manager: Volodymyr Piatenko

45+4'▲D. Apanaschenko←▼A. Petryk

66'▲S. Kohut←▼Y. Kalinina

74'▲I. Hlushchenko←▼R. Kravchuk

87'▲N. Pantsulaya←▼N. Kozlova

87'▲V. Radionova←▼O. Ovdiychuk

Ukraine W substitutes

1Bondarchuk23Samson5Kupyak17Apanaschenko22Khrystiuk2Kohut13Pantsulaya21Zaborovets20Hlushchenko11Radionova

Manager: A. Schriebl

46'▲S. Puntigam←▼K. Schiechtl

60'▲V. Hanshaw←▼S. Hillebrand

60'▲J. Hickelsberger-Fuller←▼V. Pinther

60'▲E. Campbell←▼C. Brunold

79'▲M. Brunnthaler←▼M. Plattner

Austria W substitutes

1Sherif21Rusek2D'Angelo11Georgieva19Hanshaw13Kirchberger5Wenger18Hickelsberger-Fuller17Puntigam16Schasching25Brunnthaler10Campbell14Kolb24Madl

Friendlies Women: Ukraine W 3–2 Austria W

Ukraine W beat Austria W 3-2 in Friendlies Women on December 1, 2025.

Goals: S. Hillebrand (1'), N. Kozlova (14'), R. Kravchuk (18'), Y. Kotik (28' o.g.), O. Ovdiychuk (47').

The match was played at Estadio El Palmar.

Ukraine W vs Austria W — Friendlies Women 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Friendlies Women: Ukraine W 3–2 Austria W