Ukraine 1–3 Sweden: Result & Stats | League #32

Ukraine

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Sweden

M. Ponomarenko 90'

V. Gyokeres 73' (pen), 51', 6'

3/26/2026

League #32 · Semi-finalsCiudad de Valencia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Ukraine37%

×Draw27%

Sweden36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UkraineExpected goals in this matchSweden

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

1.27

Ukraine

1.30

Sweden

1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 9 away

1.17

creates per match

1.22

1.33

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Ukraine

1.17

Sweden

1.22

allows per match

Ukraine

1.33

Sweden

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ukraine+0.00on par

Sweden+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ukraine ↓

Sweden →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Ukraine or draw

64%

Ukraine or Sweden

73%

Draw or Sweden

63%

Winning margin

Ukraine wins by 2+

17%

Sweden wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Ukraine 1+ goals

73%

Ukraine 2+ goals

37%

Ukraine 3+ goals

14%

Sweden 1+ goals

72%

Sweden 2+ goals

36%

Sweden 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Ukraine (draw refunded)

51%

Sweden (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ukraine at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

Sweden away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.44 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ukraine attack 1.17 + Sweden defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.30

Sweden attack 1.22 + Ukraine defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Ukraine scores more

37%

level

27%

Sweden scores more

36%

Ukraine at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Ukraine will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

V. Gyökeres

Sweden · F

9.3

Match Events

6'

V. Gyokeres↳ B. Nygren

37'

C. Starfelt← I. Hien

51'

V. Gyokeres↳ K. Nordfeldt

56'

Oleksandr Tymchyk

60'

R. Yaremchuk← V. Vanat

60'

O. Gutsulyak← I. Kaliuzhnyi

60'

O. Ocheretko← O. Zubkov

71'

Anatoliy Trubin

73'

V. GyokeresPenalty

75'

Kristoffer Nordfeldt

77'

M. Ponomarenko← G. Sudakov

77'

D. Svensson← G. Gudmundsson

77'

L. Bergvall← Y. Ayari

85'

M. Shaparenko← Y. Yarmolyuk

90+4'

M. Svanberg← A. Elanga

90'

M. Ponomarenko

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

UkraineSweden

Overview

68%Possession32%

10Total Shots10

9Corners3

12Fouls10

Shots

10Total Shots10

4On Target4

5Off Target4

1Blocked2

7Inside Box9

3Outside Box1

Passing

68%Possession32%

560Total Passes270

473Accurate Passes203

84%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

12Fouls10

2Yellow Cards1

5Offsides0