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Ukraine vs Northern Ireland — Friendlies 2026

Ukraine
Ukraine
CANC
22:00
Northern Ireland
Northern Ireland
6/1/2020FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Ukraine55%
×Draw25%
Northern Ireland20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ukraine
1.58
Northern Ireland
0.85

Ukraine creates 86% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 15 away

creates per match

Ukraine
1.57
Northern Ireland
1.13

allows per match

Ukraine
0.57
Northern Ireland
1.60

finishing

Ukraine+0.00on par
Northern Ireland+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ukraine ↓

Northern Ireland →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Ukraine or draw
80%
Ukraine or Northern Ireland
75%
Draw or Northern Ireland
45%

Winning margin

Ukraine wins by 2+
29%
Northern Ireland wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Ukraine 1+ goals
79%
Ukraine 2+ goals
47%
Ukraine 3+ goals
21%
Northern Ireland 1+ goals
57%
Northern Ireland 2+ goals
21%
Northern Ireland 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Ukraine (draw refunded)
73%
Northern Ireland (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ukraine at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.57 · 7 matches

Northern Ireland away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.60 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ukraine attack 1.57 + Northern Ireland defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.58

Northern Ireland attack 1.13 + Ukraine defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Ukraine scores more
55%
level
25%
Northern Ireland scores more
20%

Ukraine at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Ukraine will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ukraine vs Northern Ireland — Match Preview

Ukraine face Northern Ireland on June 1, 2020 in this Friendlies fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.