Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Ukraine U23 vs Panama U23 — Tournoi Maurice Revello 2022

Ukraine U23
Ukraine U23
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Panama U23
Panama U23
6/8/2024Tournoi Maurice RevelloTournoi Maurice Revello · Group Stage - 3Stade Parsemain

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Ukraine U2353%
×Draw23%
Panama U2324%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ukraine U23
1.83
Panama U23
1.17

Ukraine U23 creates 56% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 6 away

creates per match

Ukraine U23
2.67
Panama U23
2.00

allows per match

Ukraine U23
0.33
Panama U23
1.00

finishing

Ukraine U23+0.00on par
Panama U23+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ukraine U23 ↓

Panama U23 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Ukraine U23 or draw
76%
Ukraine U23 or Panama U23
77%
Draw or Panama U23
47%

Winning margin

Ukraine U23 wins by 2+
30%
Panama U23 wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Ukraine U23 1+ goals
84%
Ukraine U23 2+ goals
54%
Ukraine U23 3+ goals
28%
Panama U23 1+ goals
69%
Panama U23 2+ goals
33%
Panama U23 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Ukraine U23 (draw refunded)
68%
Panama U23 (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ukraine U23 at home — creates 2.67, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

Panama U23 away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ukraine U23 attack 2.67 + Panama U23 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.83

Panama U23 attack 2.00 + Ukraine U23 defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Ukraine U23 scores more
53%
level
23%
Panama U23 scores more
24%

Ukraine U23 at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Ukraine U23 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tournoi Maurice Revello: Ukraine U23 2–0 Panama U23

Ukraine U23 beat Panama U23 2-0 in Tournoi Maurice Revello on June 8, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Parsemain in Fos-sur-Mer.