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Ukraine U23 vs Japan U19 — Tournoi Maurice Revello 2022

Ukraine U23
Ukraine U23
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Japan U19
Japan U19
6/10/2024Tournoi Maurice RevelloTournoi Maurice Revello · Group Stage - 4Stade de Lattre de Tassigny

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Ukraine U2365%
×Draw18%
Japan U1918%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ukraine U23
2.58
Japan U19
1.29

Ukraine U23 creates 100% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

creates per match

Ukraine U23
2.67
Japan U19
2.25

allows per match

Ukraine U23
0.33
Japan U19
2.50

finishing

Ukraine U23+0.00on par
Japan U19+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ukraine U23 ↓

Japan U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Ukraine U23 or draw
82%
Ukraine U23 or Japan U19
82%
Draw or Japan U19
35%

Winning margin

Ukraine U23 wins by 2+
43%
Japan U19 wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Ukraine U23 1+ goals
92%
Ukraine U23 2+ goals
72%
Ukraine U23 3+ goals
47%
Japan U19 1+ goals
72%
Japan U19 2+ goals
37%
Japan U19 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Ukraine U23 (draw refunded)
79%
Japan U19 (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ukraine U23 at home — creates 2.67, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

Japan U19 away — creates 2.25, concedes 2.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ukraine U23 attack 2.67 + Japan U19 defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.58

Japan U19 attack 2.25 + Ukraine U23 defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Ukraine U23 scores more
65%
level
18%
Japan U19 scores more
18%

Ukraine U23 at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Ukraine U23 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tournoi Maurice Revello: Ukraine U23 2–1 Japan U19

Ukraine U23 beat Japan U19 2-1 in Tournoi Maurice Revello on June 10, 2024.

The match was played at Stade de Lattre de Tassigny in Aubagne.