Ukraine U23 2–2 Côte d'Ivoire U20: Result & Stats

Ukraine U23

Pens

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Côte d'Ivoire U20

6/16/2024

Tournoi Maurice Revello · FinalStade Marcel Roustan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Ukraine U2357%

×Draw23%

Côte d'Ivoire U2020%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ukraine U23Expected goals in this matchCôte d'Ivoire U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

1.00

Ukraine U23

1.83

Côte d'Ivoire U20

1.00

Ukraine U23 creates 83% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

2.67

creates per match

1.67

0.33

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Ukraine U23

2.67

Côte d'Ivoire U20

1.67

allows per match

Ukraine U23

0.33

Côte d'Ivoire U20

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ukraine U23+0.00on par

Côte d'Ivoire U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ukraine U23 ↓

Côte d'Ivoire U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Ukraine U23 or draw

80%

Ukraine U23 or Côte d'Ivoire U20

77%

Draw or Côte d'Ivoire U20

43%

Winning margin

Ukraine U23 wins by 2+

32%

Côte d'Ivoire U20 wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Ukraine U23 1+ goals

84%

Ukraine U23 2+ goals

54%

Ukraine U23 3+ goals

28%

Côte d'Ivoire U20 1+ goals

63%

Côte d'Ivoire U20 2+ goals

26%

Côte d'Ivoire U20 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Ukraine U23 (draw refunded)

74%

Côte d'Ivoire U20 (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ukraine U23 at home — creates 2.67, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

Côte d'Ivoire U20 away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ukraine U23 attack 2.67 + Côte d'Ivoire U20 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.83

Côte d'Ivoire U20 attack 1.67 + Ukraine U23 defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Ukraine U23 scores more

57%

level

23%

Côte d'Ivoire U20 scores more

20%

Ukraine U23 at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Ukraine U23 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff