Ukraine U19 3–0 Switzerland U19: Result & Stats

Ukraine U19

FT

3 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Switzerland U19

M. Ponomarenko 78', 68'

H. Synchuk 63'

3/26/2024

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Elite Round - 6Stadion Gorče Petrov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Ukraine U1939%

×Draw24%

Switzerland U1937%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ukraine U19Expected goals in this matchSwitzerland U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.48

Ukraine U19

1.52

Switzerland U19

1.48

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 13 away

1.95

creates per match

1.92

1.05

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

Ukraine U19

1.95

Switzerland U19

1.92

allows per match

Ukraine U19

1.05

Switzerland U19

1.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ukraine U19+0.00on par

Switzerland U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ukraine U19 ↓

Switzerland U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Ukraine U19 or draw

63%

Ukraine U19 or Switzerland U19

76%

Draw or Switzerland U19

61%

Winning margin

Ukraine U19 wins by 2+

19%

Switzerland U19 wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Ukraine U19 1+ goals

78%

Ukraine U19 2+ goals

45%

Ukraine U19 3+ goals

20%

Switzerland U19 1+ goals

77%

Switzerland U19 2+ goals

43%

Switzerland U19 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Ukraine U19 (draw refunded)

51%

Switzerland U19 (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ukraine U19 at home — creates 1.95, concedes 1.05 · 19 matches

Switzerland U19 away — creates 1.92, concedes 1.08 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ukraine U19 attack 1.95 + Switzerland U19 defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.52

Switzerland U19 attack 1.92 + Ukraine U19 defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Ukraine U19 scores more

39%

level

24%

Switzerland U19 scores more

37%

Ukraine U19 at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Ukraine U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'

I. Okafor

54'

D. Xhemalija← I. Oka

54'

J. Lüthi← C. Ligue

54'

R. Neelakandan← J. Zé

58'

63'

64'

66'

68'

69'

T. Ouattara← R. Kessler

71'

V. Tsukanov← A. Matkevych

72'

M. Ponomarenko

73'

D. Krevsun

77'

S. Henchoz

78'

J. Manzambi← S. Henchoz

78'

M. Ponomarenko

84'

I. Badenko← D. Krevsun

84'

M. Dubrovnyi← M. Ponomarenko

90+1'

K. Shevchenko← O. Husiev

90+1'

T. Tutierov← R. Hadzhiiev

Ukraine

Switzerland

1

Huber

4

▼

Henchoz

13

▼

Kessler

3

Seiler

16

▼

Okafor

7

Deme

23

▼

Zé

22

Marques

10

▼

20

5

12

5

20

▼

Husiev

14

Mykhavko

11

▼

Krevsun

10

▼

Matkevych

18

⚽

Synchuk

8

Vashchenk

21

Melnychen

9

⚽2

▼

Ponomaren

17

▼

Hadzhiiev

Manager: D. Mykhailenko

71'▲V. Tsukanov←▼A. Matkevych

84'▲I. Badenko←▼D. Krevsun

84'▲M. Dubrovnyi←▼M. Ponomarenko

90+1'▲K. Shevchenko←▼O. Husiev

90+1'▲T. Tutierov←▼R. Hadzhiiev

Ukraine U19 substitutes

22Tsukanov3Badenko19Dubrovnyi7Shevchenko15Tutierov2Drozd4Yermachkov6Striukov1Kravets

Manager: I. Borenovic

54'▲D. Xhemalija←▼I. Oka

54'▲J. Lüthi←▼C. Ligue

54'▲R. Neelakandan←▼J. Zé

69'▲T. Ouattara←▼R. Kessler

78'▲J. Manzambi←▼S. Henchoz

Switzerland U19 substitutes

6Xhemalija14Lüthi19Neelakandan11Ouattara8Manzambi12Mina17Streit18Walker

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification: Ukraine U19 3–0 Switzerland U19

Ukraine U19 beat Switzerland U19 3-0 in UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification on March 26, 2024.

Goals: H. Synchuk (63'), M. Ponomarenko (68', 78').

The match was played at Stadion Gorče Petrov in Skopje.

Ukraine U19 vs Switzerland U19 — UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification 2022

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification: Ukraine U19 3–0 Switzerland U19