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Ukraine U19 vs Romania U19 — UEFA U19 Championship 2019

Ukraine U19
Ukraine U19
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Romania U19
Romania U19
V. Mykolenko 90+2'
O. Safronov 84'
O. Moruţan 77'
3/27/2018UEFA U19 ChampionshipUEFA U19 Championship · Elite Round - 5Stadionul Ilie Oană

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Ukraine U1951%
×Draw24%
Romania U1925%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ukraine U19
1.70
Romania U19
1.11

Ukraine U19 creates 53% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 9 away

creates per match

Ukraine U19
1.73
Romania U19
1.22

allows per match

Ukraine U19
1.00
Romania U19
1.67

finishing

Ukraine U19+0.00on par
Romania U19+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ukraine U19 ↓

Romania U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Ukraine U19 or draw
75%
Ukraine U19 or Romania U19
76%
Draw or Romania U19
49%

Winning margin

Ukraine U19 wins by 2+
28%
Romania U19 wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Ukraine U19 1+ goals
82%
Ukraine U19 2+ goals
51%
Ukraine U19 3+ goals
24%
Romania U19 1+ goals
67%
Romania U19 2+ goals
30%
Romania U19 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Ukraine U19 (draw refunded)
67%
Romania U19 (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ukraine U19 at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.00 · 11 matches

Romania U19 away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.67 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ukraine U19 attack 1.73 + Romania U19 defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.70

Romania U19 attack 1.22 + Ukraine U19 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Ukraine U19 scores more
51%
level
24%
Romania U19 scores more
25%

Ukraine U19 at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Ukraine U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

77'
O. Moruţan
84'
O. Safronov
90+2'
V. Mykolenko

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA U19 Championship: Ukraine U19 2–1 Romania U19

Ukraine U19 beat Romania U19 2-1 in UEFA U19 Championship on March 27, 2018.

Goals: O. Moruţan (77'), O. Safronov (84'), V. Mykolenko (90+2').

The match was played at Stadionul Ilie Oană in Ploieşti.