Ukraine U19 4–2 Malta U19: Result & Stats

Ukraine U19

FT

4 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Malta U19

10/6/2021

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 1Stadion GOSiR

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Ukraine U1969%

×Draw18%

Malta U1914%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ukraine U19Expected goals in this matchMalta U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.42

0.98

Ukraine U19

2.42

Malta U19

0.98

Ukraine U19 creates 147% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 10 away

1.95

creates per match

0.90

1.05

allows per match

2.90

creates per match

Ukraine U19

1.95

Malta U19

0.90

allows per match

Ukraine U19

1.05

Malta U19

2.90

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ukraine U19+0.00on par

Malta U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ukraine U19 ↓

Malta U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–18%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–15%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

43%57%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Ukraine U19 or draw

86%

Ukraine U19 or Malta U19

82%

Draw or Malta U19

31%

Winning margin

Ukraine U19 wins by 2+

46%

Malta U19 wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Ukraine U19 1+ goals

91%

Ukraine U19 2+ goals

69%

Ukraine U19 3+ goals

43%

Malta U19 1+ goals

62%

Malta U19 2+ goals

26%

Malta U19 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Ukraine U19 (draw refunded)

83%

Malta U19 (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ukraine U19 at home — creates 1.95, concedes 1.05 · 19 matches

Malta U19 away — creates 0.90, concedes 2.90 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ukraine U19 attack 1.95 + Malta U19 defence 2.90 → ÷2 → 2.42

Malta U19 attack 0.90 + Ukraine U19 defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Ukraine U19 scores more

69%

level

18%

Malta U19 scores more

14%

Ukraine U19 at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Ukraine U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff