Ukraine U19 1–2 Luxembourg U19: Result & Stats

Ukraine U19

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Luxembourg U19

I. Gorbach 12'

L. Elshan 59', 17'

3/22/2023

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Elite Round - 2Estadio Municipal Villanovense

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Ukraine U1957%

×Draw22%

Luxembourg U1921%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ukraine U19Expected goals in this matchLuxembourg U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.94

1.09

Ukraine U19

1.94

Luxembourg U19

1.09

Ukraine U19 creates 78% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 16 away

1.95

creates per match

1.13

1.05

allows per match

1.94

creates per match

Ukraine U19

1.95

Luxembourg U19

1.13

allows per match

Ukraine U19

1.05

Luxembourg U19

1.94

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ukraine U19+0.00on par

Luxembourg U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ukraine U19 ↓

Luxembourg U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Ukraine U19 or draw

79%

Ukraine U19 or Luxembourg U19

78%

Draw or Luxembourg U19

43%

Winning margin

Ukraine U19 wins by 2+

33%

Luxembourg U19 wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Ukraine U19 1+ goals

86%

Ukraine U19 2+ goals

58%

Ukraine U19 3+ goals

30%

Luxembourg U19 1+ goals

66%

Luxembourg U19 2+ goals

30%

Luxembourg U19 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Ukraine U19 (draw refunded)

73%

Luxembourg U19 (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ukraine U19 at home — creates 1.95, concedes 1.05 · 19 matches

Luxembourg U19 away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.94 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ukraine U19 attack 1.95 + Luxembourg U19 defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.94

Luxembourg U19 attack 1.13 + Ukraine U19 defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Ukraine U19 scores more

57%

level

22%

Luxembourg U19 scores more

21%

Ukraine U19 at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Ukraine U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

17'

26'

34'

59'

D. Chernysh← K. Sigeev

59'

O. Rosputko← A. Tsarenko

59'

O. Yushchenko← A. Glushchenko

59'

V. Kharabara← O. Pushkarev

59'

L. Elshan

64'

Y. Torres

69'

R. Klisurica← R. Berberi

73'

A. Kitela

74'

S. Turping← L. Elshan

82'

D. Udod

87'

M. Aleksandrov← I. Varfolomeev

87'

T. Souchard← J. Alves Rodrigues

90+2'

90+2'

90+4'

90+4'

Ukraine

Luxembourg

1

Margato

2

Torres

5

Ikene

18

▼

Berberi

6

Oliveira

10

⚽2

▼

8

4

3

9

11

▼

1

5

3

22

2

6

▼

Varfolome

13

▼

Pushkarev

7

▼

Tsarenko

21

▼

Glushchen

10

▼

Sigeev

9

⚽

Gorbach

Manager: S. Nagornyak

59'▲D. Chernysh←▼K. Sigeev

59'▲O. Rosputko←▼A. Tsarenko

59'▲O. Yushchenko←▼A. Glushchenko

59'▲V. Kharabara←▼O. Pushkarev

87'▲M. Aleksandrov←▼I. Varfolomeev

Ukraine U19 substitutes

18Chernysh20Rosputko17Yushchenko11Kharabara19Aleksandrov8Benedyuk12Barchenko16Losenko4Kholod

Manager: M. Mutsch

69'▲R. Klisurica←▼R. Berberi

74'▲S. Turping←▼L. Elshan

87'▲T. Souchard←▼J. Alves Rodrigues

Luxembourg U19 substitutes

20Klisurica7Turping17Souchard16Irigoyen12Welbes15Agostinelli13Rodrigues19Flick