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Ukraine U19 vs Latvia U19 — UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification 2022

Ukraine U19
Ukraine U19
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Latvia U19
Latvia U19
3/23/2024UEFA U19 Championship - QualificationUEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Elite Round - 3Stadion Gorče Petrov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Ukraine U1956%
×Draw23%
Latvia U1921%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ukraine U19
1.81
Latvia U19
1.00

Ukraine U19 creates 81% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 19 away

creates per match

Ukraine U19
1.95
Latvia U19
0.95

allows per match

Ukraine U19
1.05
Latvia U19
1.68

finishing

Ukraine U19+0.00on par
Latvia U19+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ukraine U19 ↓

Latvia U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Ukraine U19 or draw
79%
Ukraine U19 or Latvia U19
77%
Draw or Latvia U19
44%

Winning margin

Ukraine U19 wins by 2+
32%
Latvia U19 wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Ukraine U19 1+ goals
84%
Ukraine U19 2+ goals
54%
Ukraine U19 3+ goals
27%
Latvia U19 1+ goals
63%
Latvia U19 2+ goals
26%
Latvia U19 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Ukraine U19 (draw refunded)
73%
Latvia U19 (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ukraine U19 at home — creates 1.95, concedes 1.05 · 19 matches

Latvia U19 away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.68 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ukraine U19 attack 1.95 + Latvia U19 defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.81

Latvia U19 attack 0.95 + Ukraine U19 defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Ukraine U19 scores more
56%
level
23%
Latvia U19 scores more
21%

Ukraine U19 at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Ukraine U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ukraine U19 vs Latvia U19

Ukraine U19 beat Latvia U19 3-0 in UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification on March 23, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Gorče Petrov in Skopje.