Ukraine U19 2–1 Finland U19: Result & Stats

Ukraine U19

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Finland U19

I. Losenko 75' (pen)

Y. Yarmoliuk 36'

J. Nikki 21'

10/9/2021

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 2Stadion GOSiR

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Ukraine U1944%

×Draw24%

Finland U1931%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ukraine U19Expected goals in this matchFinland U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.31

Ukraine U19

1.60

Finland U19

1.31

Ukraine U19 creates 22% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 16 away

1.95

creates per match

1.56

1.05

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Ukraine U19

1.95

Finland U19

1.56

allows per match

Ukraine U19

1.05

Finland U19

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ukraine U19+0.00on par

Finland U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ukraine U19 ↓

Finland U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Ukraine U19 or draw

69%

Ukraine U19 or Finland U19

76%

Draw or Finland U19

56%

Winning margin

Ukraine U19 wins by 2+

22%

Finland U19 wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Ukraine U19 1+ goals

80%

Ukraine U19 2+ goals

47%

Ukraine U19 3+ goals

22%

Finland U19 1+ goals

73%

Finland U19 2+ goals

38%

Finland U19 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Ukraine U19 (draw refunded)

58%

Finland U19 (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ukraine U19 at home — creates 1.95, concedes 1.05 · 19 matches

Finland U19 away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.25 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ukraine U19 attack 1.95 + Finland U19 defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.60

Finland U19 attack 1.56 + Ukraine U19 defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Ukraine U19 scores more

44%

level

24%

Finland U19 scores more

31%

Ukraine U19 at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Ukraine U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'

J. Nikki

36'

Y. Yarmoliuk

46'

I. Losenko← O. Yatsyk

46'

C. Terho← H. Salomaa

46'

E. Henriksson← H. Riihimäki

46'

O. Kemppainen← N. Talo

68'

A. Mykytyshyn← D. Shostak

75'

I. LosenkoPenalty

82'

M. Farina← N. Voloshyn

85'

A. Sadiku← N. Saarikivi

87'

N. Malysh← E. Kozik

Ukraine

Finland

1

▼

Riihimäki

3

⚽

Nikki

19

Kivikko

5

▼

14

13

9

7

▼

Saarikivi

20

▼

11

16

12

18

3

▼

4

2

8

11

▼

Shostak

15

▼

Yatsyk

19

⚽

Yarmoliuk

7

▼

Voloshyn

9

Gorbach

Manager: V. Yezersky

46'▲I. Losenko←▼O. Yatsyk

68'▲A. Mykytyshyn←▼D. Shostak

82'▲M. Farina←▼N. Voloshyn

87'▲N. Malysh←▼E. Kozik

Ukraine U19 substitutes

6Losenko17Mykytyshyn20Farina14Malysh5Khrypchuk10Khromey1Isenko13Nepeypiev16Gunichev

Manager: P. Lundberg

46'▲C. Terho←▼H. Salomaa

46'▲E. Henriksson←▼H. Riihimäki

46'▲O. Kemppainen←▼N. Talo

85'▲A. Sadiku←▼N. Saarikivi

Finland U19 substitutes

15Terho12Henriksson17Kemppainen10Sadiku8Ikonen4Koskela18Stjopin

Match Recap: Ukraine U19 vs Finland U19

Ukraine U19 beat Finland U19 2-1 in UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification on October 9, 2021.

Goals: J. Nikki (21'), Y. Yarmoliuk (36'), I. Losenko (75' pen).

The match was played at Stadion GOSiR in Plewiska.

Ukraine U19 vs Finland U19 — UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification 2022

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Ukraine U19 vs Finland U19