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Ukraine U18 vs Denmark U18 — Friendlies 2026

Ukraine U18
Ukraine U18
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Denmark U18
Denmark U18
9/9/2025FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Ukraine U1834%
×Draw27%
Denmark U1839%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ukraine U18
1.22
Denmark U18
1.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 10 away

creates per match

Ukraine U18
1.33
Denmark U18
1.50

allows per match

Ukraine U18
1.17
Denmark U18
1.10

finishing

Ukraine U18+0.00on par
Denmark U18+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ukraine U18 ↓

Denmark U18 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Ukraine U18 or draw
61%
Ukraine U18 or Denmark U18
73%
Draw or Denmark U18
66%

Winning margin

Ukraine U18 wins by 2+
14%
Denmark U18 wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Ukraine U18 1+ goals
70%
Ukraine U18 2+ goals
34%
Ukraine U18 3+ goals
12%
Denmark U18 1+ goals
74%
Denmark U18 2+ goals
38%
Denmark U18 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Ukraine U18 (draw refunded)
46%
Denmark U18 (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ukraine U18 at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

Denmark U18 away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.10 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ukraine U18 attack 1.33 + Denmark U18 defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.22

Denmark U18 attack 1.50 + Ukraine U18 defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Ukraine U18 scores more
34%
level
27%
Denmark U18 scores more
39%

Denmark U18 at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Denmark U18 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies: Ukraine U18 0–3 Denmark U18

Denmark U18 beat Ukraine U18 3-0 in Friendlies on September 9, 2025.