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Ujpest vs Kaposvar — League #271 2026

Ujpest
Ujpest
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Kaposvar
Kaposvar
B. Lázár 21'
B. Balázs 27'
3/8/2014League #271League #271 · Round 19Szusza Ferenc Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Ujpest57%
×Draw23%
Kaposvar20%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ujpest
1.80
Kaposvar
0.95

Ujpest creates 89% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 10 away

creates per match

Ujpest
1.50
Kaposvar
0.50

allows per match

Ujpest
1.40
Kaposvar
2.10

finishing

Ujpest+0.00on par
Kaposvar+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ujpest ↓

Kaposvar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Ujpest or draw
80%
Ujpest or Kaposvar
77%
Draw or Kaposvar
43%

Winning margin

Ujpest wins by 2+
33%
Kaposvar wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Ujpest 1+ goals
83%
Ujpest 2+ goals
54%
Ujpest 3+ goals
27%
Kaposvar 1+ goals
61%
Kaposvar 2+ goals
25%
Kaposvar 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Ujpest (draw refunded)
74%
Kaposvar (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ujpest at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.40 · 10 matches

Kaposvar away — creates 0.50, concedes 2.10 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ujpest attack 1.50 + Kaposvar defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 1.80

Kaposvar attack 0.50 + Ujpest defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Ujpest scores more
57%
level
23%
Kaposvar scores more
20%

Ujpest at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Ujpest will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'
B. Lázár
27'
B. Balázs

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ujpest vs Kaposvar

Ujpest and Kaposvar drew 1-1 in League #271 on March 8, 2014.

Goals: B. Lázár (21'), B. Balázs (27').

The match was played at Szusza Ferenc Stadion in Budapest.