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Újpest II vs Törökszentmiklós — NB III - Northeast 2019

Újpest II
Újpest II
FT
7 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Törökszentmiklós
Törökszentmiklós
4/17/2022NB III - NortheastNB III - Northeast · Keleti - 31Szusza Ferenc Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Újpest II69%
×Draw17%
Törökszentmiklós14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Újpest II
2.52
Törökszentmiklós
1.06

Újpest II creates 138% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 19 away

creates per match

Újpest II
2.29
Törökszentmiklós
0.63

allows per match

Újpest II
1.50
Törökszentmiklós
2.74

finishing

Újpest II+0.00on par
Törökszentmiklós+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Újpest II ↓

Törökszentmiklós →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Újpest II or draw
86%
Újpest II or Törökszentmiklós
83%
Draw or Törökszentmiklós
31%

Winning margin

Újpest II wins by 2+
47%
Törökszentmiklós wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Újpest II 1+ goals
92%
Újpest II 2+ goals
71%
Újpest II 3+ goals
45%
Törökszentmiklós 1+ goals
65%
Törökszentmiklós 2+ goals
29%
Törökszentmiklós 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Újpest II (draw refunded)
83%
Törökszentmiklós (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Újpest II at home — creates 2.29, concedes 1.50 · 34 matches

Törökszentmiklós away — creates 0.63, concedes 2.74 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Újpest II attack 2.29 + Törökszentmiklós defence 2.74 → ÷2 → 2.52

Törökszentmiklós attack 0.63 + Újpest II defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Újpest II scores more
69%
level
17%
Törökszentmiklós scores more
14%

Újpest II at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Újpest II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Northeast: Újpest II 7–0 Törökszentmiklós

Újpest II beat Törökszentmiklós 7-0 in NB III - Northeast on April 17, 2022.

The match was played at Szusza Ferenc Stadion in Budapest.