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Újpest II vs Salgótarjáni BTC — NB III - Northeast 2019

Újpest II
Újpest II
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Salgótarjáni BTC
Salgótarjáni BTC
5/12/2024NB III - NortheastNB III - Northeast · Northeast - 28Szusza Ferenc Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Újpest II58%
×Draw21%
Salgótarjáni BTC21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Újpest II
2.10
Salgótarjáni BTC
1.18

Újpest II creates 78% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 49 away

creates per match

Újpest II
2.29
Salgótarjáni BTC
0.86

allows per match

Újpest II
1.50
Salgótarjáni BTC
1.92

finishing

Újpest II+0.00on par
Salgótarjáni BTC+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Újpest II ↓

Salgótarjáni BTC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Újpest II or draw
79%
Újpest II or Salgótarjáni BTC
79%
Draw or Salgótarjáni BTC
42%

Winning margin

Újpest II wins by 2+
35%
Salgótarjáni BTC wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Újpest II 1+ goals
88%
Újpest II 2+ goals
62%
Újpest II 3+ goals
35%
Salgótarjáni BTC 1+ goals
69%
Salgótarjáni BTC 2+ goals
33%
Salgótarjáni BTC 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Újpest II (draw refunded)
74%
Salgótarjáni BTC (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Újpest II at home — creates 2.29, concedes 1.50 · 34 matches

Salgótarjáni BTC away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.92 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Újpest II attack 2.29 + Salgótarjáni BTC defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 2.10

Salgótarjáni BTC attack 0.86 + Újpest II defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Újpest II scores more
58%
level
21%
Salgótarjáni BTC scores more
21%

Újpest II at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Újpest II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Újpest II vs Salgótarjáni BTC

Újpest II and Salgótarjáni BTC drew 1-1 in NB III - Northeast on May 12, 2024.

The match was played at Szusza Ferenc Stadion in Budapest.