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Újpest II vs Hajdúszoboszlói SE — NB III - Northeast 2019

Újpest II
Újpest II
FT
2 – 3
Hajdúszoboszlói SE
Hajdúszoboszlói SE
8/11/2021NB III - NortheastNB III - Northeast · Keleti - 2Szusza Ferenc Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Újpest II47%
×Draw22%
Hajdúszoboszlói SE31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Újpest II
1.91
Hajdúszoboszlói SE
1.52

Újpest II creates 26% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 38 away

creates per match

Újpest II
2.29
Hajdúszoboszlói SE
1.53

allows per match

Újpest II
1.50
Hajdúszoboszlói SE
1.53

finishing

Újpest II+0.00on par
Hajdúszoboszlói SE+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Újpest II ↓

Hajdúszoboszlói SE →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
66%34%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Újpest II or draw
69%
Újpest II or Hajdúszoboszlói SE
78%
Draw or Hajdúszoboszlói SE
53%

Winning margin

Újpest II wins by 2+
26%
Hajdúszoboszlói SE wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Újpest II 1+ goals
85%
Újpest II 2+ goals
57%
Újpest II 3+ goals
30%
Hajdúszoboszlói SE 1+ goals
78%
Hajdúszoboszlói SE 2+ goals
45%
Hajdúszoboszlói SE 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Újpest II (draw refunded)
60%
Hajdúszoboszlói SE (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Újpest II at home — creates 2.29, concedes 1.50 · 34 matches

Hajdúszoboszlói SE away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.53 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Újpest II attack 2.29 + Hajdúszoboszlói SE defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.91

Hajdúszoboszlói SE attack 1.53 + Újpest II defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Újpest II scores more
47%
level
22%
Hajdúszoboszlói SE scores more
31%

Újpest II at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Újpest II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Northeast: Újpest II 2–3 Hajdúszoboszlói SE

Hajdúszoboszlói SE beat Újpest II 3-2 in NB III - Northeast on August 11, 2021.

The match was played at Szusza Ferenc Stadion in Budapest.