Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Újpest II vs Gyirmót II — NB III - Northwest 2019

Újpest II
Újpest II
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Gyirmót II
Gyirmót II
3/22/2025NB III - NorthwestNB III - Northwest · Northwest - 21Tungsram SC Sporttelep

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Újpest II51%
×Draw22%
Gyirmót II27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Újpest II
1.90
Gyirmót II
1.32

Újpest II creates 44% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 30 away

creates per match

Újpest II
1.39
Gyirmót II
1.20

allows per match

Újpest II
1.45
Gyirmót II
2.40

finishing

Újpest II+0.00on par
Gyirmót II+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Újpest II ↓

Gyirmót II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Újpest II or draw
73%
Újpest II or Gyirmót II
78%
Draw or Gyirmót II
49%

Winning margin

Újpest II wins by 2+
29%
Gyirmót II wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Újpest II 1+ goals
85%
Újpest II 2+ goals
56%
Újpest II 3+ goals
29%
Gyirmót II 1+ goals
73%
Gyirmót II 2+ goals
38%
Gyirmót II 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Újpest II (draw refunded)
66%
Gyirmót II (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Újpest II at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.45 · 67 matches

Gyirmót II away — creates 1.20, concedes 2.40 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Újpest II attack 1.39 + Gyirmót II defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 1.90

Gyirmót II attack 1.20 + Újpest II defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Újpest II scores more
51%
level
22%
Gyirmót II scores more
27%

Újpest II at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Újpest II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Újpest II vs Gyirmót II

Újpest II and Gyirmót II drew 1-1 in NB III - Northwest on March 22, 2025.

The match was played at Tungsram SC Sporttelep in Budapest.