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Újezd Praha 4 vs Vilémov — 4. liga - Divizie B 2019

Újezd Praha 4
Újezd Praha 4
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Vilémov
Vilémov
11/12/20224. liga - Divizie B4. liga - Divizie B · Division B - 15Újezd Praha 4 UMT

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Újezd Praha 476%
×Draw14%
Vilémov10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Újezd Praha 4
2.88
Vilémov
0.95

Újezd Praha 4 creates 203% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 15 away

creates per match

Újezd Praha 4
2.30
Vilémov
0.87

allows per match

Újezd Praha 4
1.02
Vilémov
3.47

finishing

Újezd Praha 4+0.00on par
Vilémov+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Újezd Praha 4 ↓

Vilémov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–16%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Újezd Praha 4 or draw
90%
Újezd Praha 4 or Vilémov
86%
Draw or Vilémov
24%

Winning margin

Újezd Praha 4 wins by 2+
56%
Vilémov wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Újezd Praha 4 1+ goals
94%
Újezd Praha 4 2+ goals
78%
Újezd Praha 4 3+ goals
54%
Vilémov 1+ goals
61%
Vilémov 2+ goals
25%
Vilémov 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Újezd Praha 4 (draw refunded)
89%
Vilémov (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Újezd Praha 4 at home — creates 2.30, concedes 1.02 · 60 matches

Vilémov away — creates 0.87, concedes 3.47 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Újezd Praha 4 attack 2.30 + Vilémov defence 3.47 → ÷2 → 2.88

Vilémov attack 0.87 + Újezd Praha 4 defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Újezd Praha 4 scores more
76%
level
14%
Vilémov scores more
10%

Újezd Praha 4 at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Újezd Praha 4 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie B: Újezd Praha 4 2–0 Vilémov

Újezd Praha 4 beat Vilémov 2-0 in 4. liga - Divizie B on November 12, 2022.

The match was played at Újezd Praha 4 UMT in Praha-Újezd.