Újezd Praha 4 0–1 Chomutov: Result & Stats

Újezd Praha 4

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Chomutov

3/16/2024

4. liga - Divizie B · Division B - 18Újezd Praha 4 UMT

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Újezd Praha 448%

×Draw23%

Chomutov28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Újezd Praha 4Expected goals in this matchChomutov

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.31

Újezd Praha 4

1.77

Chomutov

1.31

Újezd Praha 4 creates 35% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 67 away

2.30

creates per match

1.60

1.02

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Újezd Praha 4

2.30

Chomutov

1.60

allows per match

Újezd Praha 4

1.02

Chomutov

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Újezd Praha 4+0.00on par

Chomutov+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Újezd Praha 4 ↓

Chomutov →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Újezd Praha 4 or draw

72%

Újezd Praha 4 or Chomutov

77%

Draw or Chomutov

52%

Winning margin

Újezd Praha 4 wins by 2+

26%

Chomutov wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Újezd Praha 4 1+ goals

83%

Újezd Praha 4 2+ goals

53%

Újezd Praha 4 3+ goals

26%

Chomutov 1+ goals

73%

Chomutov 2+ goals

38%

Chomutov 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Újezd Praha 4 (draw refunded)

63%

Chomutov (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Újezd Praha 4 at home — creates 2.30, concedes 1.02 · 60 matches

Chomutov away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.25 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Újezd Praha 4 attack 2.30 + Chomutov defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.77

Chomutov attack 1.60 + Újezd Praha 4 defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Újezd Praha 4 scores more

48%

level

23%

Chomutov scores more

28%

Újezd Praha 4 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Újezd Praha 4 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff