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UJ Krakow W vs Medyk Konin W — Ekstraliga Women 2023

UJ Krakow W
UJ Krakow W
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Medyk Konin W
Medyk Konin W
3/9/2024Ekstraliga WomenEkstraliga Women · Round 13Stadion Miejski KS Prądniczanka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

UJ Krakow W61%
×Draw19%
Medyk Konin W19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

UJ Krakow W
2.32
Medyk Konin W
1.23

UJ Krakow W creates 89% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 11 away

creates per match

UJ Krakow W
1.55
Medyk Konin W
0.55

allows per match

UJ Krakow W
1.91
Medyk Konin W
3.09

finishing

UJ Krakow W+0.00on par
Medyk Konin W+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UJ Krakow W ↓

Medyk Konin W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

UJ Krakow W or draw
81%
UJ Krakow W or Medyk Konin W
81%
Draw or Medyk Konin W
39%

Winning margin

UJ Krakow W wins by 2+
39%
Medyk Konin W wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

UJ Krakow W 1+ goals
90%
UJ Krakow W 2+ goals
67%
UJ Krakow W 3+ goals
40%
Medyk Konin W 1+ goals
71%
Medyk Konin W 2+ goals
35%
Medyk Konin W 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

UJ Krakow W (draw refunded)
76%
Medyk Konin W (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UJ Krakow W at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.91 · 22 matches

Medyk Konin W away — creates 0.55, concedes 3.09 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UJ Krakow W attack 1.55 + Medyk Konin W defence 3.09 → ÷2 → 2.32

Medyk Konin W attack 0.55 + UJ Krakow W defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

UJ Krakow W scores more
61%
level
19%
Medyk Konin W scores more
19%

UJ Krakow W at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "UJ Krakow W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: UJ Krakow W vs Medyk Konin W

Medyk Konin W beat UJ Krakow W 1-0 in Ekstraliga Women on March 9, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski KS Prądniczanka in Krakow.