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UiTM FC vs Kelantan FA — Malaysia Cup 2019

UiTM FC
UiTM FCadvanced
FT
3 – 2
Kelantan FA
Kelantan FA
11/8/2020Malaysia CupMalaysia Cup · Round of 16Mini Manjung Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

UiTM FC58%
×Draw20%
Kelantan FA22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

UiTM FC
2.29
Kelantan FA
1.35

UiTM FC creates 70% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 7 away

creates per match

UiTM FC
1.00
Kelantan FA
0.71

allows per match

UiTM FC
2.00
Kelantan FA
3.57

finishing

UiTM FC+0.00on par
Kelantan FA+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UiTM FC ↓

Kelantan FA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

UiTM FC or draw
78%
UiTM FC or Kelantan FA
80%
Draw or Kelantan FA
42%

Winning margin

UiTM FC wins by 2+
36%
Kelantan FA wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

UiTM FC 1+ goals
90%
UiTM FC 2+ goals
66%
UiTM FC 3+ goals
40%
Kelantan FA 1+ goals
74%
Kelantan FA 2+ goals
39%
Kelantan FA 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

UiTM FC (draw refunded)
73%
Kelantan FA (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UiTM FC at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 5 matches

Kelantan FA away — creates 0.71, concedes 3.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UiTM FC attack 1.00 + Kelantan FA defence 3.57 → ÷2 → 2.29

Kelantan FA attack 0.71 + UiTM FC defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

UiTM FC scores more
58%
level
20%
Kelantan FA scores more
22%

UiTM FC at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "UiTM FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Malaysia Cup: UiTM FC 3–2 Kelantan FA

UiTM FC beat Kelantan FA 3-2 in Malaysia Cup on November 8, 2020.

The match was played at Mini Manjung Stadium in Manjung.