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Uirapuru vs Ação — Matogrossense 2 2024

Uirapuru
Uirapuru
FT
4 – 3
HT: 2 – 2
Ação
Ação
6/18/2025Matogrossense 2Matogrossense 2 · 1st Phase - 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Uirapuru35%
×Draw20%
Ação45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Uirapuru
2.02
Ação
2.30

Ação creates 14% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

creates per match

Uirapuru
2.20
Ação
2.00

allows per match

Uirapuru
2.60
Ação
1.83

finishing

Uirapuru+0.00on par
Ação+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

78%Yes
  • Yes78
  • No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Uirapuru ↓

Ação →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–24%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–27%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–36%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–25%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
62%38%4.5
43%57%

Double chance

Uirapuru or draw
55%
Uirapuru or Ação
80%
Draw or Ação
65%

Winning margin

Uirapuru wins by 2+
19%
Ação wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Uirapuru 1+ goals
87%
Uirapuru 2+ goals
60%
Uirapuru 3+ goals
33%
Ação 1+ goals
90%
Ação 2+ goals
67%
Ação 3+ goals
40%

Draw no bet

Uirapuru (draw refunded)
44%
Ação (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
72%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Uirapuru at home — creates 2.20, concedes 2.60 · 5 matches

Ação away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Uirapuru attack 2.20 + Ação defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 2.02

Ação attack 2.00 + Uirapuru defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Uirapuru scores more
35%
level
20%
Ação scores more
45%

Ação at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Ação will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Uirapuru vs Ação

Uirapuru beat Ação 4-3 in Matogrossense 2 on June 18, 2025.