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Uherský Brod vs Hodonín — 3. liga - MSFL 2019

Uherský Brod
Uherský Brod
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Hodonín
Hodonín
5/27/20233. liga - MSFL3. liga - MSFL · MSFL - 30Orelský stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Uherský Brod40%
×Draw24%
Hodonín36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Uherský Brod
1.58
Hodonín
1.50

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 69 home / 51 away

creates per match

Uherský Brod
1.59
Hodonín
1.75

allows per match

Uherský Brod
1.26
Hodonín
1.57

finishing

Uherský Brod+0.00on par
Hodonín+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Uherský Brod ↓

Hodonín →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Uherský Brod or draw
64%
Uherský Brod or Hodonín
76%
Draw or Hodonín
60%

Winning margin

Uherský Brod wins by 2+
20%
Hodonín wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Uherský Brod 1+ goals
79%
Uherský Brod 2+ goals
47%
Uherský Brod 3+ goals
21%
Hodonín 1+ goals
78%
Hodonín 2+ goals
44%
Hodonín 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Uherský Brod (draw refunded)
52%
Hodonín (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Uherský Brod at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.26 · 69 matches

Hodonín away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.57 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Uherský Brod attack 1.59 + Hodonín defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.58

Hodonín attack 1.75 + Uherský Brod defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Uherský Brod scores more
40%
level
24%
Hodonín scores more
36%

Uherský Brod at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Uherský Brod will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - MSFL: Uherský Brod 3–1 Hodonín

Uherský Brod beat Hodonín 3-1 in 3. liga - MSFL on May 27, 2023.

The match was played at Orelský stadion in Uherský Brod.