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Uherský Brod vs Dolní Benešov — 3. liga - MSFL 2019

Uherský Brod
Uherský Brod
FT
4 – 1
Dolní Benešov
Dolní Benešov
8/3/20193. liga - MSFL3. liga - MSFL · MSFL - 1Orelský stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Uherský Brod60%
×Draw20%
Dolní Benešov20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Uherský Brod
2.16
Dolní Benešov
1.17

Uherský Brod creates 85% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 26 away

creates per match

Uherský Brod
1.59
Dolní Benešov
1.08

allows per match

Uherský Brod
1.26
Dolní Benešov
2.73

finishing

Uherský Brod+0.00on par
Dolní Benešov+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Uherský Brod ↓

Dolní Benešov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Uherský Brod or draw
80%
Uherský Brod or Dolní Benešov
80%
Draw or Dolní Benešov
40%

Winning margin

Uherský Brod wins by 2+
37%
Dolní Benešov wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Uherský Brod 1+ goals
88%
Uherský Brod 2+ goals
63%
Uherský Brod 3+ goals
36%
Dolní Benešov 1+ goals
69%
Dolní Benešov 2+ goals
33%
Dolní Benešov 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Uherský Brod (draw refunded)
75%
Dolní Benešov (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Uherský Brod at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.26 · 69 matches

Dolní Benešov away — creates 1.08, concedes 2.73 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Uherský Brod attack 1.59 + Dolní Benešov defence 2.73 → ÷2 → 2.16

Dolní Benešov attack 1.08 + Uherský Brod defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Uherský Brod scores more
60%
level
20%
Dolní Benešov scores more
20%

Uherský Brod at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Uherský Brod will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - MSFL: Uherský Brod 4–1 Dolní Benešov

Uherský Brod beat Dolní Benešov 4-1 in 3. liga - MSFL on August 3, 2019.

The match was played at Orelský stadion in Uherský Brod.