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Dolní Benešov vs Uherský Brod — 3. liga - MSFL 2019

Dolní Benešov
Dolní Benešov
CANC
00:00
Uherský Brod
Uherský Brod
3/14/20203. liga - MSFL3. liga - MSFL · MSFL - 18Stadion FC MSA Dolní Benešov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Dolní Benešov44%
×Draw25%
Uherský Brod31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dolní Benešov
1.54
Uherský Brod
1.27

Dolní Benešov creates 21% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 61 away

creates per match

Dolní Benešov
0.80
Uherský Brod
0.93

allows per match

Dolní Benešov
1.60
Uherský Brod
2.28

finishing

Dolní Benešov+0.00on par
Uherský Brod+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dolní Benešov ↓

Uherský Brod →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Dolní Benešov or draw
69%
Dolní Benešov or Uherský Brod
75%
Draw or Uherský Brod
56%

Winning margin

Dolní Benešov wins by 2+
22%
Uherský Brod wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Dolní Benešov 1+ goals
79%
Dolní Benešov 2+ goals
45%
Dolní Benešov 3+ goals
20%
Uherský Brod 1+ goals
72%
Uherský Brod 2+ goals
36%
Uherský Brod 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Dolní Benešov (draw refunded)
58%
Uherský Brod (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dolní Benešov at home — creates 0.80, concedes 1.60 · 20 matches

Uherský Brod away — creates 0.93, concedes 2.28 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dolní Benešov attack 0.80 + Uherský Brod defence 2.28 → ÷2 → 1.54

Uherský Brod attack 0.93 + Dolní Benešov defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Dolní Benešov scores more
44%
level
25%
Uherský Brod scores more
31%

Dolní Benešov at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Dolní Benešov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Dolní Benešov vs Uherský Brod — Match Preview

Dolní Benešov face Uherský Brod on March 14, 2020 in this 3. liga - MSFL fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Dolní Benešov host Uherský Brod at Stadion FC MSA Dolní Benešov.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.