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Ugyen Academy vs Samtse — Premier League 2023

Ugyen Academy
Ugyen Academy
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Samtse
Samtse
8/21/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Regular SeasonUgyen Academy Football Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Ugyen Academy60%
×Draw18%
Samtse23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ugyen Academy
2.83
Samtse
1.73

Ugyen Academy creates 64% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 18 away

creates per match

Ugyen Academy
1.67
Samtse
1.28

allows per match

Ugyen Academy
2.17
Samtse
4.00

finishing

Ugyen Academy+0.00on par
Samtse+0.00on par

Total goals

83%Over
  • Over83
  • Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

77%Yes
  • Yes77
  • No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ugyen Academy ↓

Samtse →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–15%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
83%17%3.5
66%34%4.5
46%54%

Double chance

Ugyen Academy or draw
77%
Ugyen Academy or Samtse
82%
Draw or Samtse
40%

Winning margin

Ugyen Academy wins by 2+
40%
Samtse wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Ugyen Academy 1+ goals
94%
Ugyen Academy 2+ goals
77%
Ugyen Academy 3+ goals
53%
Samtse 1+ goals
82%
Samtse 2+ goals
52%
Samtse 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Ugyen Academy (draw refunded)
73%
Samtse (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
72%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ugyen Academy at home — creates 1.67, concedes 2.17 · 24 matches

Samtse away — creates 1.28, concedes 4.00 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ugyen Academy attack 1.67 + Samtse defence 4.00 → ÷2 → 2.83

Samtse attack 1.28 + Ugyen Academy defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Ugyen Academy scores more
60%
level
18%
Samtse scores more
23%

Ugyen Academy at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Ugyen Academy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ugyen Academy vs Samtse

Ugyen Academy beat Samtse 3-0 in Premier League on August 21, 2025.

The match was played at Ugyen Academy Football Field in Khuruthang.